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Happy New Year and thanks for subscribing the lens. It is a true honor to share this forum with you. I hope to provide much more content in the new year as it becomes the main outlet for my research and writing.

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Looking ahead, inflation appears to be receding into the rearview mirror as the risk of recession becomes the dominant economic concern in 2023. The big concern is that the Fed will go too far (many believe he already has), rising roughly another 75 basis points, although incoming economic data suggests the battle against inflation has it has already been won. There is deflation of basic goods, the housing market is changing and basic services ex-housing are slowing down very well. Inflation expectations (for those who care about such things) show no signal of being “unmoored” and there are no evidence of a wage-price spiral catching up Here’s a good look at where we stand at the Roosevelt Institute Mike Konczal.

I had the opportunity to talk about inflation and the economic outlook for 2023 Bloomberg TV i CNBC’s Squawk Box last week.

With your continued interest, I will do my best to make sense of the economy in the new year.