Categories: Breaking News

Inflation in focus after German GDP rises surprises


  • German GDP dampens recession fears supporting euro bulls.
  • German CPI and US core PCE dominate the calendar later today.

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Italy and France started the morning with Italian inflation beating expectations for October, while Spanish GDP missed both y-o-y and quarterly metrics, keeping the euro depressed against the USD. With German GDP a 1.2% i 0.3% (see economic calendar below), respectively, the euro received a slight boost due to the stronger GDP impression. According to the GDP report, the countries positive performance was mainly attributed to private consumption spending, while I believe lower energy prices may have had some upward effect on the final figure.

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Source: Federal Statistics Office (Destatis), 2022

Later today, inflation takes center stage, despite Germany looking to increase its previous reading 10.1%the dollar may gain upside later this afternoon if the core US PCE statistic comes in as expected.


Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

After yesterday’s ECB interest rate announcement, markets reacted moderately and left the EUR/USD currency pair trading below parity again. ECB officials may try to change that response by making dovish comments ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

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EUR/USD price action was relatively muted but provided marginal support for the Euro after the release. The long-term downtrend channel (blue) remains a key concern for analysts, as a weekly close within the channel may limit the euro’s upside. A potential bullish crossover can also be seen next week with the 20 (purple) and 50 day (blue) EMAs highlighted in yellow. Something to keep in mind in next week’s sessions.

Resistance levels:

  • 1.0064
  • 100-day EMA (yellow)
  • 1.0000

Support levels:

  • 50-day EMA (blue)
  • 0.9864/20-day EMA (purple)


IGCS shows that retail traders are currently LONG in EUR/USD, with 52% of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrary view to crowd sentiment, but due to recent changes in long and short positioning, we favor a cautious short-term bias.

Contact and follow Warren on Twitter:@WVenketas


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